Pokemon GO: How Rare Are Evolution Items?

 

Trainers have been looking for these heavily sought after items, evolutions items to be fair. At first, trainers had noticed a fairly high chance of gaining and Evolution item on their 7th-day spin streak. After that got publicized the items seem to have gotten harder to get.

The items obviously stick to their names and can be used to evolve Pokemon. The items you have a chance of getting at Pokestops are:

Sun Stone

Dragon Scale

Metal Coat

King’s Rock

Up-Grade

Of course, data has already been collected for these items and a rough estimate drop rate has been found. There are a few theories about how evolutions items have been implemented into the Pokestops loot pool, but we will keep it simple.

Basically, the theory that makes the most sense so far is the evolution items have a “world drop”. What this means is the item doesn’t have a 1-100 chance of dropping from a single players spin. Rather, it means the item would have a 1-100 chance of dropping from all player’s spins.

Let’s take one Pokestop. Someone threw a lure up and attracted 10 players. The total amount of spins a single player will get within the duration of the lure is 12. Altogether, the 10 players will be able to spin  120 times. If the evolution item had a 1-100 chance of dropping from the spin for a single player, the chances of getting one would be around 10% each (a little more).

If the evolution items where on a world spawn timer. Then out of all the players, at least one of them should have an evolution item. The odds are still the same for a single player, but with more players, the odds are higher that one of them collect an item. So what are the drop rates of the evolution items?

With the data collected from 23500 Pokestops,  the numbers are a little deceiving. Research can still be done over the world drop theory, but as far as singular drops go. It looks like you will need a lot of luck to get an evolution item. Even more, if you are after a certain one.

Sun Stone 8 0.03%
King’s Rock 6 0.03%
Dragon Scale 4 0.02%
Upgrade 6 0.03%
Metal Coat 9 0.04%

 

These results came from players across the world and parts of different teams. To test the world drop theory, it’s best to get a group of players together. Head to a single Pokestop, pop a lure module, and just set there. Don’t forget to record the data from every player, even players not a part of your group. It’s crucial to find a Pokestop people don’t normally spin in stealth

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